MPD Releases Year to Date Citywide Crime Statistics

From MPD:

Beginning Tuesday, December 18, 2012, MPD will publish our calendar year to date, citywide crime statistics, on our Department’s “Crime and Statistics” webpage ( http://mpdc.dc.gov/statistics).

These statistics will allow everyone to compare this year’s citywide crime statistics to those from the same period last year.

We will continually update these statistics until such time as we are able to bring our crime mapping application back online.

38 Comment

  • This is why I was always confused why people were celebrating lower homicide rates, as if that equates to lower crime rates.

    • Because people like to twist the facts to make things look a lot better than they really are. The truth? There is still a TON of crime in DC, even if it isn’t all people killing other people. And it’s clearly on the rise.

      • Total Indexed Crimes
        1992: 67,388
        2002: 44,456
        2012: 34,238

        • Thanks for providing a great example of twisting the numbers. Sure, crime has dropped in 20 years, but it is clearly on the rise once again. And I’ll bet that most of the people who live here now weren’t here 20 years ago, so they don’t give a damn that there was twice as much crime in DC back then.

    • Nearly 25% drop in murder is fairly drastic, considering it’s been falling already some 20 years.

      But yeah overall crime isn’t going down much. If there is an uptick in the real estate market in 2013-2014 that can’t hurt. Well maybe it can…..

    • Because . . . homicide is worse than robbery. I wouldn’t argue that lower homicide rates equate to lower crime rates. I would, however, prefer to have my iPhone snatched than to be shot.

      • As a person who took one class in statistics 6 years ago in college (haha) I have an issue with this. Are there lower homicide rates because first responders and medical care is better in the city?

        • I don’t know the answer to your question. I was simply responding to your original question about why people celebrate lower homicide rates. Why people celebrate something has nothing to do with statistics and everything to do with the magnitude of the perceived harm.

          But, really, I doubt that there has been some dramatic uptick in first responder rates that the quality of health care in DC.

          • “or the quality of health care” not “that”

          • The reason only homicide stats are relevant is because all of the other crimes can be distorted by the police or not reported by the victims.

            A significant percentage of crime goes unreported, but homicides are difficult to hide or distort.

            The rise in “other” crimes could be due to people just reporting it more or police covering it up less.

        • Meh, I highly doubt this. There are less murders, because there are:

          A. Less potential murderers living in the city.
          B. Less people that said potential murderers would want to murder living in the city.

          In 1990, there were crack dealers killing other crack dealers/gang members. There are less crack dealers and gang members living in the city.

          There are plenty of arguments that Roe V. Wade reduced the crime rate. Fascinating.

      • While anyone would rather have a phone stolen than be shot, the rise in violent assaults and thefts is of more relevance to the average citizen. Homicides are typically personal in some way (lover’s quarrel, gang violence, drug deal gone wrong, etc.), so the average citizen is unlikely to be randomly murdered (which is not to say random people are never killed during a robbery or whatever). On the flip side, violent assaults and muggings affect normal citizens who otherwise stay out of trouble. It is more a matter of bad luck/timing than being involved with the wrong people.

    • hard to get accurate stats on most other crimes because of under-reporting. homicide not under-reported.

      • +1 Yeah, the rest of the statistics on crime (even violent crime) are, unfortunately, terribly unreliable. A lot of people are attacked/mugged and never report it, and this tends to change over time with demographics, with wealthier victims being more likely to report crimes. So crime rates sometimes can appear to rise as the median income of a city’s residents rise, even if crime hasn’t gone up. However, murder rates tend to be very accurate.

        • Totally agree with this. Homicide is the only reliable measure of total crime because numbers can easily be fudged and crimes can go unreported. The demographic change in the city is causing more crime to be reported to the dismay of the police force.

          I frequently read posts by people describing the reluctance of the DC police to file a report and even go as far as blaming the victim for the robbery. The police need to make crime numbers look better than they are, and homicides are the only crime that can’t be distorted.

          The demographic change is happening so fast that the police can’t fudge numbers fast enough to counteract the rise in “reported crimes”.

  • Does the number of sex abuse cases reflect better police and prosecution efforts or a growth in sex offenses.

  • should have added a question mark:

    Does the number of sex abuse cases reflect better police and prosecution efforts or a growth in sex offenses?

  • I’ve been following the murder rate for this year (it’s the one stat that is always kept up to date) and have noticed we’re looking at another record low year for murders! The one problem with grouping together all these categories and then announcing that crime is up 4% in the city this year is that it gives murders and thefts from autos the same weight. Personally I don’t see any value in adding up all these categories because somebody getting murdered is infinitely more important than someone stealing a GPS unit from a car.

    • That’s a fair point (obviously murder is more serious and has more serious consequences), but if we’re looking at likelihood of being victim of a crime period in DC, I guess it’s going up. And statisically, you’re apparently over 100 times more likely to be the victim of theft from auto than murder, so that factors into the equation.

      • DC’s population rose by 2.7% from 2010 to 2011. I don’t think 2012 stats are available. But, if crime is up by 4% while population is up by 3%, it is true that your overall chance of being a victim of crime is up, but not by much.

        • are crimes per capita rated by individual occurrences of crimes, or individual victims?
          i bet there is a large difference between those two numbers.

    • Agreed. It seems a better model would account for population as well.

    • I believe that in November there was only one murder in DC (woodley metro). Which is a crazy stat, considering 20 years ago the city was averaging about 40 a month. Maybe November is historically a slow month, but that still is incredible.

  • And why is the crime mapping function still off-line? It’s far more useful then this, and it’s been unavailable for weeks.

  • I wonder if petty crime has actually been increasing or if it is just more reliably reported than they used to be.

  • Why are they still hiding some of the crime stats? for example, not all assaults are listed- only assault with dangerous weapon (which can be everything from a shooting to a beat down). MPD should release raw crime & arrest data (including badge numebr of arresting officers) so we can do some real analysis.

    Interesting to note that homicides are down while assaults with dangerous weapons (which includes shootings) are up. Maybe part of the decline in homicides is better emergency care? Would be interesting to see the raw number of shootings, not just homicides.

  • The value of black market crap is going down; It literally doesn’t pay to be a robber or burglar like it used to.

    • And hopefully the fact that cell phones will soon be losing their value entirely after being stolen will further improve the statistics.

  • As a very accomplished arm chair statistician, I’d encourage everyone to slow down and not panic about a 3-4% YoY increase in crime. The trend is still a dramatic downward direction.

    This wont stop everyone hyperventilating though, will it?

  • Assault with Deadly Weapon up because there are too many guns in this city in the possession of too many juveniles and young people who get a slap on the wrist for using them in the commission of a robbery.

  • Fear-mongering among the elites of this site should come out well for this post. Embrace your wonderful, consistently-getting-safer city.

    Two points:

    1) The quality of health-care has not gone up so drastically in the past few years to have put even a scratch in the murder rate. No great medical advancements were implemented in the past year, as far as I know. That’s just a waste of an argument from people too scared to feel safe.

    2) Thefts have to be going up because of the $100-$200 re-saleable phones that people walk around with while zoned out listening to music. Some high percentage (60ish) of Manhattan thefts were Apple products, I believe I read somewhere. All crimes are crimes, naturally, but its not the most devastating victimization that a city can unfortunately produce.

    Lastly, 82 of our fellow citizens died this past year that shouldn’t have. We should put that in perspective and work hard as a city to shave off 10% of that total for 2013.

    • Spot on, mofo.

    • Very well said. It seems when stats supports a PoPer’s narrative the stats are perceived to be infallible. However when the stats go against what they firmly believe, the stats are obviously wrong or juiced.

  • Totally BS numbers. I’m in a patrol district and we’re getting hammered with robberies and burglaries far worse than years past. There’s something odd here unless my district’s much worse than last year.

  • If we have so many violent crimes, why are our jails full of non-violent drug offenders? They even let dangerous criminals out if they help turn in drug dealers. It’s insane and out of control. These are the tactics od a facist police state, not the worlds shining example of freedom. It’s bad, very bad. A man killed his mother with a hammer and got 17years while there are small time dealers getting 20 to life. Someone please explain this to me.

  • btw: the man who killed his mother with a hammer shot 4 firemen when he got out, killing 2 of them.

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